China Boxboard Industry Advisory & Outlook report (2020-2024)

A detailed insight to Opportunities & Challenges for the World's Largest Market and a Future Trade Hub

2020 edition / In collaboration with China Paper & Pulp Industry Chamber of Commerce (CPICC)
(Three purchase options tailored to your needs: 1. Comprehensive edition; 2. 10-year Analysis version; 3. Strategy version ;)

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Combine analysis & strategic insights

dui.jpgIn depth analysis of China's boxboard market and competitive landscape, trade dynamics and latest policy sets to 2024.

dui.jpgLatest strategic insights on China's increasing global influences (pricing, supply, etc.)    and its end use market size and growth portfolios.

dui.jpgComprehensive and exclusive analysis of new drivers in China’s paper industry as well as the impact of new policies. For instance, imported solid waste reform and new plastics limit initiatives are among the new key factors to this industry.

dui.jpg2020 edition also includes exclusive analysis of new market changes in 2019 and 2020, including the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, etc.

(This is the first China Paper Industry advisory report supported by China Paper & Pulp Industry Chamber of Commerce, a national level industry organization with more than 200 official members from the forest products value chain.)
  • Changes from supply and policy fronts are having major impacts on operation and pricing for paper companies in China, and less obvious impacts on the global supply chain:


           Largest boxboard market with expanding exports:
           Today’s China is the largest boxboard consumer and producer in Asia, and the nation’s total virgin cartonboard supply (by designed capacity) has reached more than 10 million tonnes, larger than North America’s total as well as Europe’s total. Consequently, virgin grades exports also increased greatly, achieving more than 2.0 million tonnes exports to the global boxboard market.
           New Phase in China’s domestic market:
           Environmental inspections have been significant in 2016 and 2017, also prompting more production suspensions as well as plant relocations required by local authority. Outdated capacity closure campaigns enforcement has also been elevated, coupled with the release of the new pollution emission permit system. Meanwhile, the paper industry released its latest 5-yr development guide.


    Therefore, companies relevant to China and global boxboard sectors will need to review China's role in their existing business strategy and assess their potential opportunities and risks:

       

           During Sep 2017, ivoryboard and coated duplex board prices in China on average rose 31% and 45% as compared to a year earlier, for example. On nominal terms, those prices restored to levels in 2011, yet, China has added more than 6.6 million tonnes boxboard capacity between 2011 and 2017. The nation’s demand grew by 4.1 million tonnes during the same timeframe.      
           The price rally led by Chinese mills in 2016 and 2017 could reverse current trade flow a little and cause global pricing to move up, but whether this pricing trend is sustainable and if it sustains, will this lead to another wave of investments?


    This advisory report will provide both in-depth market analysis and strategic perspectives for now and the following 5 years:


           ● In 2020-24, more demand due to switching from plastic packaging as well as newly added capacity will support a modest rebound in growth. For virgin grades, its growth will reaccelerate to 5%, also above the overall boxboard growth trend. By sub grades, cupstock board is expected to remain double-digit growth.        
           ● On the supply side, continued restructuring has been seen in the recycled boxboard segment, not yet reaching bottom, despite improving profitability. Slight demand improvement and import growth opportunities (1 million tonnes’ volume potential) are expected in the forecast period.          
           ● Moreover, the demand-supply dynamics, and pulp and waste paper trends under China’s ‘new phase’, will impact global boxboard pricing and volumes in multiple ways.
           In addition to above mentioned analysis, the NPC Partners’ research has taken a deep dive into the most relevant new policies. The study also provides insight to a number of boxboard downstream sectors, major producers (company background, product sales strategy & boxboard capacity) and their cost positioning, also key market segment such as liquid packaging board and other food grades. Preliminary general recommendations based on our outlook analysis and end use demand pattern are also presented.



  • Major Highlights:


           3 Purchase solutions tailored to your needs:

           1. Comprehensive edition: cover both market analysis & strategic advisory, first report of its kind in this paperboard sector
           2. Analytical version: market study with in-depth perspective and extensive database
           3. Strategy version: combine growth advisory (end use & market overall), competitive analysis, and trade analysis
           

    Comprehensive market analytical package:


           ● China boxboard demand, supply and trade dynamics (>10-year data sets)
           ● Chinese exports and imports by sub-grade and sourcing/destination country
           ● Insights into the boxboard price pattern new drivers in 2017-2019
           ● 5-yr outlook to 2024 based on the most advanced end-use demand model, trade and supply scenarios
           ● Cost competitiveness of major Chinese boxboard mills and asset analysis
           ● Understand impact of major developments on policy and supply on China paper industry's ‘New Phase’


    Invaluable strategic planning tool:


           ● Understand impact of major developments on policy and supply on China paper industry's ‘New Phase’
           ● Assess market strategy in China with demand and forecast by major end-use market sizes and sub-grades.
           ● How overseas market have emerged and increased for Chinese exports & restructuring of supply creates some import opportunities
           ● Evaluate competitive landscape of major producers in full details, & case studies of  China's 'new plastics limit order', regional closure campaigns, and food board segements, etc
           ● Overview of investment and export strategy with deep insights into China's developments in the ‘New phase’ and competitiveness of Chinese-made ivoryboard versus equivalent grades in Europe and North America

  •        Executive Summary
           Grade definitions

    1.China’s context of ‘New Normal’ and its implications from the paper industry and associated policies


           a.Understanding the nation’s New Normal economy and its implications from the Paper Industry

              i.Summary of China's economic situation and policy actions in 2018 & 2019

              ii.Coronavirus Impact to China’s Economy and the Paper Industry, and Recommendations

              iii.Review of the China paper industry in 2018 & 201

           b.New police sets towards the 13th 5-yr period (2020)
              i.13th 5-yr plan on the paper industry
              ii.Pollution emission permit and environmental tax
              iii.New regulation on imported waste paper
           c.Observations on the nation’s environmental inspections and impacts to industry supply
           d.Insights to China's changing wastepaper policies and future guides, etc
           Analysis version, China Boxboard Market: In-depth perspective to 2024

    2.China’s Boxboard Industry in 2007-2019


           a.Highlights on the development of the industry
           b.Demand, Supply and Trade Dynamics
              i.Market Demand by Grade
              ii.Production and Trade by Grade
              iii.Capacity Expansion, 2007-2019
              iv.Expansion Project Analysis
              v.Overall Price Trend Analysis, 2018-2019

    3.Boxboard Market Outlook


           a.Chinese Boxboard Forecast Summary
           b.Total Boxboard Demand Forecast by Grade, 2020-2024
           c.Boxboard Capacity Forecast
           d.Overall Production and Trade Forecast
           e.Capacity Expansion Monitoring and Analysis, 2020-2024
           f.Risks to the Forecast


    4.Industry Competitive Landscapes and Major Producers Cost Analysis


           a.Capacity and Machine Assets
           b.Fiber Furnish, Coating Chemicals ad their main sources
           c.Plies of Base Paper, Coating Layers and Coating Weights
           d.Cost Competitiveness of Chinese Virgin Cartonboard Producers
           e.Cost Competitiveness of Chinese Recycled Boxboarrd Producers
           f.Cash Costs of Chinese Producers
           Strategy version: Guide to Winning Strategy

    5.Boxboard Demand Composition, End-Use Analysis and Forecast


           a.Recommendations for Domestic Market Growth Strategy
           b.End-Use based Forecast for Boxboard Sub-Grades, 2020-2024
           c.Forecasting Methodology
           d.Overview of Chinese Boxboard Demand by End-Use Industry, 2010-2019
           e.Analysis of Major End-Use Downstream Markets for Boxboard
              i.Apparel
              ii.Dairy
              iii.Alcoholic Beverages
              iv.Pharmaceuticals
              v.Footwear
              vi.Toys
              vii.Cigarettes
              viii.Non-alcoholic Beverage
              ix.Selected Home Appliances
              x.Cosmetics & Personal Care
              xi.Paper based consumer bags
              xii.Packaged Food Products
              xiii.Quick food service & Disposable paper cups
           f.Notes on Other Boxboard Demand
           g.Research Methodology

    6.Market Structure Characteristics (Firm-Level Analysis & Strategy)


           a.Major Boxboard Producers Positioning and Profiles
              i.Virgin Grades
                1.Asia Pulp & Paper (APP) China
                 ---Ningbo APP
                 ---Ningbo Zhonghua Paper
                 ---Guangxi APP
                2.Shandong Bohui Paper
                3.Shandong Sun Holdings
                4.Chenming Paper Group
                5.Zhuhai Hongta Renheng Packaging
                6.Asia Symbol
              ii.Recycled Grades
                1.Nine Dragons Paper Industries
                2.Jintian Paper
                3.Chunsheng Group
                4.Honghao Group
           b.Virgin Cartonboard Market in 22019
              i.Domestic Prices for Commercial Packaging (Non-food grades) Prices
              ii.Case Study: “Reduce and Replace Plastics” trend & Considerations on China Market
              iii.Special Research and Analysis 1: Liquid Packaging Board Market
              iv.Special Research and Analysis 2: Food Grades Market
           c.Recycled Boxboard Market in 2019
              i.Domestic Coated Recycled Board Price Movements
              ii.Case Study: Snapshot of China’s closure campaign: Fuyang’s experience (recycled boxboard grades)
           d.Basis Weight and Distribution Practice for Boxboard Grades in China

    7.Trade Implications and Risks

           
           a.Discussion of China's Expanding Impact on the Global Boxboard Import & Export Markets
           b.More Analysis on the Chinese Boxboard Trade Scenario

           c.Firm-Level Behaviors, Export Pricing, and Exporting Destinations of Chinese Board
           d.Destinations for Chinese Boxboard and Other Coated Paperboard Exports
           e.Brief Comments on Global Cost Competitiveness

Price
    • USD$14,000

      (comprehensive edition: market & strategy)/(tailor made edition upon request)

    • USD$7,000

      (market analysis version)

    • USD$7,000

      (strategy version)

Program timing

The report is now available (latest update in March 2020).

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Study Team

dian.jpg This report series is covered by seasoned experts and consultants on this topics at NPC Partners, whom together own more than 40 years of industry and consulting experience.  China Paper & Pulp Industry Chamber of Commerce's staff team in Beijing also contributed to the market research.

dian.jpg Key authors possess strong technical and business qualifications in the paper industry, previously holding key positions at leading industry analysis firms such as RISI, as well as top management consulting firms such as Booz & Co, PwC, Jacobs Sirrine Consulting and A.T. Kearney.

About NPC Partners

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NPC Partners is a premier, innovative consultancy with experienced industry and management professionals committed to assist our clients in the paper industry and related industries in developing powerful solutions.

Our Core Competency

Our focus is on Pulp and Paper industry, with our deep industry expertise and management consulting skills, we have successful track record in assisting our clients. In the fast changing market environment there is need of new strategic analysis and out of box solutions which can bring new opportunities. NPC Partners' new approach and independent analysis will help the paper industry to achieve its goals.

About China Paper & Pulp Industry Chamber of Commerce  (CPICC)

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CPICC is a national level industry organization, founded by the leading companies in the pulp & paper and related sectors, which also serves as a bridge connecting the Party and Government to the paper industry.  

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